Gold Edges Up, Silver Slips as Investors Brace for US Inflation Data: Key Levels to Watch

In a cautious start to Tuesday’s (July 15) session, gold prices saw a modest rise in domestic futures trade, while silver retreated from its recent peak as traders booked profits ahead of the highly anticipated US inflation report.

At around mid-morning, MCX Gold (August 5 contract) was up 0.12% at ₹97,896 per 10 grams, holding steady amid tariff-related uncertainty and global market volatility. Silver, however, gave up some gains, with the MCX Silver (September 5 contract) down 0.54% at ₹1,12,330 per kg, following its record-setting close of ₹1,15,136 in the prior session.

Tariffs Support Gold, but Silver Sees Profit Booking

Analysts noted that the announcement of new US trade tariffs on Canada and Mexico by President Donald Trump has lent support to gold prices, reinforcing its role as a hedge against geopolitical risk. The same sentiment initially buoyed silver before investors opted to lock in profits after its historic rally.

The main focus for market participants is today’s US inflation release. The figures could influence Fed rate expectations, which in turn would affect precious metals markets.

“Gold and silver are likely to stay volatile in the short term due to ongoing uncertainty in global financial markets and trade policy developments,” said Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvi Finmart Commodity Research. He advised investors to remain on the sidelines and avoid initiating new positions until after the inflation report.

Crucial Support and Resistance Levels: Gold and Silver

Jain outlined the following technical levels for MCX contracts:

MCX Gold (August): Support at ₹97,440–97,000; resistance at ₹98,000–98,360.

MCX Silver (September): Support at ₹1,12,000–1,10,800; resistance at ₹1,14,000–1,15,200.

For the international market:

Gold (spot): Support at $3,344–3,327; resistance at $3,374–3,389 per troy ounce.

Silver (spot): Support at $38.40–38.00; resistance at $39.10–39.50 per troy ounce.

Rahul Kalantri, VP of Commodities at Mehta Equities, also highlighted similar levels:

MCX Gold (INR): Support at ₹97,390–97,000; resistance at ₹98,110–98,380.

MCX Silver (INR): Support at ₹1,12,080–1,11,350; resistance at ₹1,13,850–1,14,700.

On the global front, Kalantri placed gold’s support at $3,330–3,305 and resistance at $3,370–3,390, while silver’s support lies at $37.90–37.60 and resistance at $38.50–38.70 per ounce.

What’s Next?

With the US inflation report looming, traders are expected to tread carefully. A hotter-than-expected reading could dampen expectations of near-term rate cuts from the Fed, potentially weighing on precious metals, while a softer print could bolster gold and silver by weakening the dollar.

For now, the metals remain at the mercy of macroeconomic signals and shifting risk sentiment. As Jain summed up: “Patience is key today; better clarity will emerge after the inflation numbers.”