Gold Prices Poised for Next Move Up as Consolidation Phase Nears End, Analysts Say
Thursday, June 12th 2025
Despite weeks of sideways movement, gold continues to trade comfortably above $3,300 per ounce—signaling resilience amid global uncertainty. Analysts are now eyeing an upward breakout, with key drivers aligning to support another leg higher in the precious metal’s price.
Quiet Strength Could Set the Stage for a Rally
Gold’s current consolidation phase, though lacking the drama of April’s record-breaking highs above $3,500, isn’t being interpreted as a weakness. On the contrary, market observers say it’s more of a breather before a fresh rally. Analysts at Société Générale see strong potential for gold to move higher again as economic and geopolitical risks remain elevated.
According to their outlook, ongoing central bank purchases, renewed speculative interest, and long-term ETF demand are all forming the basis for a bullish scenario in the months ahead.
Institutional Bets Return After Long Retreat
One of the more telling signs of shifting sentiment lies in speculative positioning. After eight months of retreat, asset managers are beginning to re-enter the gold market. Their departure had driven long positions on gold to a one-year low—an understandable pause after April’s surge. However, as Kitco News recently highlighted, many of these investors are now positioning for upside again.
ETFs and Economic Anxiety Keep Long-Term Demand Intact
ETF demand, often a bellwether for broader investor sentiment, saw some weakness in May with the first net outflows in five months. Still, Société Générale remains confident in its long-term outlook for ETF interest. Persistent economic headwinds—ranging from the lingering effects of U.S. tariff policies to widespread global financial uncertainty—continue to make gold attractive to risk-conscious investors.
Even though 2025 has seen an uptick in ETF flows compared to recent years, levels remain far from the historic highs of 2020 or even the crisis-driven demand spike of 2009. That leaves room for expansion should fear or volatility resurface.
Central Banks Stay Committed to Gold
One of the most stable pillars of demand, central bank gold buying, is expected to remain robust. Société Générale’s analysts point out that for many countries, reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar remains a strategic priority—and diversifying with gold is a logical step in that direction.
In fact, the bank had already adjusted its full-year average price forecast for gold to $3,300 per ounce earlier in the year, and still sees a potential path toward $4,000 per ounce—a level that once seemed bold but is now increasingly realistic in the current macro environment.
Silver May Lag as Momentum Cools
While gold may be gearing up for another upward surge, Société Générale is more cautious on silver. The bank’s analysts suggest that recent strong performance has left silver in “overbought” territory, where profit-taking could emerge.
In contrast to gold’s broader appeal as both a monetary hedge and reserve asset, silver remains more vulnerable to short-term shifts in investor sentiment and industrial demand.
