Gold’s Meteoric Rise Meets Friday Shock: A Week of Euphoria and Exhaustion
Sunday, October 19th 2025
A Week Without U.S. Data — Yet Gold Soared
With no major U.S. economic data to steer sentiment, gold took the spotlight this week. Investors, spooked by ongoing trade and tariff concerns, piled into the yellow metal, sending it surging day after day before a dramatic reversal on Friday jolted markets.
Spot gold opened the week at $4,022.44 and quickly broke through a series of psychological resistance levels — $4,100 on Monday, $4,200 by Wednesday, and an astonishing $4,300 by Thursday. The rally climaxed in early Friday trading when gold nearly reached $4,400 per ounce, topping out around $4,380.99, a historic milestone that few imagined possible just months ago.
The Friday Frenzy: From Euphoria to Exhaustion
Friday’s trading session was nothing short of chaotic. Asian markets saw gold skyrocket from $4,315 to $4,368 within minutes, only to drop sharply to $4,290 an hour later. Bulls attempted to reclaim lost ground, pushing prices to a fresh all-time high of $4,380.99 before exhaustion set in.
From there, the selloff accelerated. By the North American open, gold had plunged to $4,217 per ounce, later bottoming at $4,185.91. Buyers cautiously re-entered the market, lifting prices back toward $4,240 by the weekend close.
Market Sentiment: Split Between Bulls and Realists
According to the latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey, opinions among analysts were sharply divided following gold’s wild week.
- Colin Cieszynski of SIA Wealth Management took a neutral stance, saying gold’s rally “may be due for a pause” as momentum cools.
- Darin Newsom of Barchart.com remained bullish, citing global political concerns: “As of Friday morning, the U.S. is still closer to autocracy than democracy. The rest of the world recognizes this and continues to buy gold.”
- Adam Button of Forexlive.com preferred a correction, saying, “I’d love to see a pullback to $4,000 to build a healthier base for a test of $5,000.”
- Rich Checkan of Asset Strategies International argued that despite short-term dips, the long-term trend is higher due to “U.S. dollar weakness, expected rate cuts, and government dysfunction.”
- Adrian Day of Adrian Day Asset Management called for a “pause and regroup,” not a collapse.
- James Stanley of Forex.com echoed bullishness, saying that the recent dip was “profit-taking” and that he remains long until a larger reversal appears.
The Silver Connection: Margin Hikes and Ripple Effects
Friday’s selloff wasn’t entirely gold’s fault. Bob Haberkorn of RJO Futures explained that silver led the decline after margin increases on both the CME and Shanghai exchanges. “It started in silver,” he said. “Gold was looking good, but silver’s selloff dragged it down.”
Haberkorn emphasized that nothing has changed fundamentally, viewing the decline as “weak hands being shaken out.” He added that this rally differs from past ones because it began with central bank buying, not speculative retail traders. “Central banks aren’t getting out because gold is down $45,” he noted. “They’re holding for the long term.”
Despite Friday’s correction, Haberkorn sees gold heading toward $4,500, viewing the dip as a buying opportunity, not a rally killer.
Wall Street vs. Main Street: Who’s More Bullish?
Among 15 analysts surveyed by Kitco, 60% expected higher gold prices next week, while 27% predicted declines and 13% foresaw sideways action.
Retail sentiment was even stronger: of 265 Main Street respondents, 68% anticipated further gains.
This optimism persists despite the U.S. government shutdown, leaving markets to rely on private-sector data such as home sales and manufacturing reports. Official inflation figures will return when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September’s CPI report next week, a key indicator for Social Security cost-of-living adjustments.
Analyst Insights: From Momentum to Macro Factors
Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Global Forex attributed gold’s surge not only to central bank demand but also to momentum traders jumping aboard. He noted that U.S. bond yields have softened, and the dollar is having its worst week since August — both supportive for gold.
Kevin Grady of Phoenix Futures and Options warned that while gold’s pace is unsustainable, “strong hands” are still accumulating. He believes gold could reach $5,000, citing investment inflows and broad-based excitement. “It’s back in the mainstream,” he said. “People are calling, asking about it. The story is spreading again.”
Grady added that only a resolution in the Russia–Ukraine conflict could significantly cool the rally.
Technical Warning Signs: Overextension Ahead?
Some analysts see exhaustion setting in after nine straight weeks of gains. Alex Kuptsikevich of FxPro called the rally a “debasement trade,” driven by investors losing faith in government debt and fiat currencies. Yet he cautioned that gold has never logged ten consecutive weeks of growth since the 1970s, suggesting a technical pullback may be imminent.
Meanwhile, Michael Moor of Moor Analytics projected a short-term downside unless gold reclaims key technical levels above $4,273.
And Jim Wyckoff, Kitco’s senior analyst, agreed, saying the market is “due for a downside technical correction.”
The Week in Numbers
By the end of the week, spot gold closed at $4,231.98 per ounce, up 6.4% on the week but down 2.2% on the day — a fitting reflection of a market caught between euphoria and exhaustion.
Outlook: Consolidation Before the Next Climb?
Despite the short-term turbulence, the consensus remains that gold’s macro drivers — weak dollar, rate cuts, and central bank demand — are intact. Whether gold pauses, corrects, or powers ahead to $4,500 or even $5,000, few doubt that this market still has room to run.
As one analyst put it: “This isn’t a rally driven by retail hype. It’s built on structural shifts in global confidence — and that story is far from over.”
