Gold’s Next Move: Consolidation or the Start of a Bigger Climb?
Sunday, October 19th 2025
Gold may be pausing below the $3,900 per ounce mark, but market analysts say the metal’s long-term direction remains decisively upward. After wrapping up September with its best monthly performance in 14 years, the yellow metal appears ready for a short breather before resuming its broader rally.
A Pause Before the Next Push
Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets, noted that some investors are wisely locking in gains following gold’s recent surge. However, he emphasized that the uptrend is far from over.
“Given the recent rally for the gold price, there is no doubt in my mind that investors should take some profit off the table,” Aslam said. “That said, this rally isn’t done—the path of least resistance is still to the upside.”
Gold is set to finish its seventh straight week of gains, its longest winning streak since early this year. Spot gold last traded at $3,880.40 an ounce, up more than 3% from last Friday.
Profit-Taking, Not Panic
According to Michael Brown, Senior Market Analyst at Pepperstone, the market’s current pause is more about healthy profit-taking than weakness.
“After such a strong run since the August breakout, a small pullback is natural,” Brown explained. “I still see $4,000 as a reasonable medium-term target. Either renewed geopolitical tension or sustained physical demand could push gold higher again.”
Brown added that dips are likely to be met with buying, as investors continue to view gold as a strategic hedge against global uncertainty.
China’s Golden Week and Limited Correction
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, highlighted the metal’s strength even during China’s Golden Week holiday (Oct. 1–8)—a period that typically sees lighter trading from one of the world’s largest consumers.
“If this is the extent of the correction while China is away, then we’re clearly looking higher,” Hansen said. “I’ve been expecting a pullback, but after this week’s performance, I’m starting to doubt it.”
Hansen pointed to persistent rate-cut expectations, high global debt levels, and growing geopolitical instability as powerful long-term supports for gold’s price.
Deeper Forces Behind the Rally
While much attention has been placed on the U.S. government shutdown, analysts argue that gold’s momentum runs deeper. Eugenia Mykuliak, Founder and Executive Director of B2PRIME Group, said the surge reflects a broader unease with U.S. monetary policy and fiscal strain.
“At $3,900 per ounce, gold’s rise has little to do with the shutdown itself,” Mykuliak said. “It reflects deeper anxieties about the Federal Reserve’s ability to manage its policy dilemma. The rally is being driven by structural forces—monetary uncertainty, fiscal debt, and global risk appetite.”
Government Shutdown: Short-Term Catalyst, Long-Term Implications
Economists warn that if the federal funding deadlock drags on, the economic impact could eventually feed back into gold’s bullish narrative.
In an interview with Kitco News, Aakash Doshi noted:
“If the shutdown continues beyond the month, we’ll likely see negative growth consequences, which would be positive for gold. The longer it lasts, the greater the risk of credit downgrades.”
Technical Picture: Where Support Lies
Traders are closely watching support levels at $3,780, $3,750, and then $3,600 per ounce. A sustained hold above these thresholds would reinforce gold’s bullish outlook heading into the final quarter of the year.
What’s Next on the Economic Calendar
With the U.S. government partially closed, official data will be limited next week. However, investors will monitor:
- The Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes, and
- The University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment report
Both could shed light on the Fed’s future path and potentially provide the next catalyst for gold’s next move.
Bottom Line
Gold may be taking a short break, but its long-term trajectory remains bright. With a combination of monetary uncertainty, geopolitical stress, and strong investor demand, analysts agree that $4,000 an ounce is still firmly within sight.
