Natixis: Gold’s Floor Now Firm at $3,000 — But Don’t Expect It to Be Tested
Saturday, November 1st 2025
Gold Finds Stability After a Sharp Pullback
After a steep 11% correction in just two weeks, gold prices are showing early signs of recovery — yet some analysts caution that the market could still have room to fall before finding its true footing. Spot gold was last seen trading around $3,996.60 per ounce, marking a modest rebound of more than 1% on the day.
According to Bernard Dahdah, Precious Metals Analyst at Natixis, gold’s retracement has prompted a wave of bargain hunting, but investors shouldn’t mistake the bounce for the beginning of a new rally. In his latest report, Dahdah outlines three potential downside scenarios for the precious metal — and why, despite them, he doesn’t expect a full-scale collapse.
Three Paths for Gold’s Price Correction
Dahdah’s analysis envisions a range of possible outcomes based on varying levels of central bank and investment demand:
- The Extreme Case – $2,000 Floor
The lowest plausible level, Dahdah argues, sits just above gold’s production cost. With all-in sustaining costs for miners averaging around $1,600, a slide to roughly $2,000 per ounce would mark the ultimate support level — effectively the point at which production economics kick in to stabilize prices. - Central Bank Slowdown – $2,800 Target
A dip in central bank purchases and ETF outflows could bring gold closer to $2,800 per ounce, Dahdah suggests. With gold-backed ETFs already near record holdings, any sentiment reversal could trigger mild liquidation and price weakness. - Moderate Cooling – $3,450 Zone
In a milder scenario where central bank demand eases but investment remains firm, gold could test support around $3,450, setting a new technical baseline.
Why a Deeper Crash Seems Unlikely
Despite these projections, Dahdah downplays the likelihood of a collapse below $3,400.
“If gold dropped that far, Chinese investors would likely rush to buy, and jewelry demand would rebound,” he told Kitco News.
This resilience stems from structural changes in the global gold market, including stronger retail participation in Asia and persistently high official-sector demand.
Consolidation Ahead: The $3,800 Average View
Natixis’ base case foresees gold trading sideways around $3,800 per ounce through 2026, reflecting a period of consolidation rather than correction.
“The run above $4,000 looked like a short squeeze,” Dahdah explained. “Without stronger physical or investment demand, prices are likely to stabilize instead of climbing endlessly.”
He also dismissed the notion of a “doomsday” rally, noting that the U.S. dollar and broader economy have shown more resilience than gold bulls expected.
Central Banks Still Buying — But Less of It
Although central bank demand remains a vital pillar of support, Dahdah expects purchases to slow modestly. Analysts estimate that global central banks will buy about 900 tonnes of gold this year, down from roughly 1,000 tonnes annually over the past three years.
“At these prices, a billion dollars buys a lot less gold,” he noted. “They’ll still be buyers — just smaller ones.”
The Quiet Upside Risk: Bond Market Volatility
While Dahdah emphasizes caution, he sees asymmetry in gold’s risk profile. A spike in bond market volatility or rising U.S. debt concerns could easily push investors toward gold.
“It doesn’t take much capital shifting from bonds to gold to move the market 10% higher,” he said.
With growing fiscal uncertainty and slowing global growth, Dahdah believes gold’s long-term structure remains healthy — even if its near-term path remains choppy.
A Market Catching Its Breath
Natixis maintains a neutral-to-bullish stance heading into the new year. The $3,000 mark has effectively become gold’s new floor, but the market seems unlikely to revisit it anytime soon.
For now, consolidation — not capitulation — appears to be the dominant theme as gold steadies itself for the next long-term advance.
