Gold Defies Headwinds and Extends Rally: Can Anything Stop It?
Saturday, September 27th 2025
Despite profit-taking, firmer U.S. data, and a stronger dollar, gold managed to climb higher this week, reinforcing its reputation as the ultimate safe-haven asset. The metal not only shrugged off pressure but also advanced toward new highs, leaving traders wondering whether the rally has further room to run.
Weekly Price Action: Bulls in Control
Gold began the week at $3,687.74 per ounce and traded in a tight range before pushing decisively above $3,700. Momentum carried through Asian and European trading, and by Monday’s U.S. session, the price reached $3,745.
- Early Tuesday: Gold briefly stalled near $3,760 but later surged to $3,790, its weekly peak.
- Midweek: A retreat followed, with prices sliding to $3,718, the week’s low.
- Thursday–Friday: Buying interest returned, pushing gold higher again, with Friday’s U.S. session lifting it to $3,784 before settling at $3,765 into the close.
The triple-top formation near $3,790 highlighted stiff resistance, but gold’s ability to bounce back after each pullback suggests underlying strength.
Analysts Split but Lean Bullish
Relentless Uptrend
Darin Newsom of Barchart.com summed up the sentiment simply:
“Up. I’ve made it a habit not to step in front of runaway trains.”
Colin Cieszynski of SIA Wealth Management agreed, citing gold’s strong position against all currencies:
“It remains in a secular uptrend.”
Central Banks and Retail Join Forces
Rich Checkan of Asset Strategies International pointed to the Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR) narrowing as a signal of growing retail investor demand. He noted central banks’ continued purchases, calling them a key pillar of support.
James Stanley of Forex.com echoed the optimism, noting that even if gold pauses around $3,800, the long-term momentum remains firmly higher.
Key Drivers Behind the Rally
Interest Rates and the Dollar
Kevin Grady of Phoenix Futures emphasized that the Fed’s path of rate cuts and a weaker dollar remain gold’s biggest tailwinds. He added that $4,000 per ounce is within reach, driven by buyers unwilling to step aside.
Geopolitics and Security Concerns
Geopolitical risks continue to bolster demand. Poland was the largest official buyer of gold last year, and tensions in Eastern Europe keep central banks diversifying away from the dollar. Grady called this a matter of “national security, not trading.”
Economic Shifts and De-Dollarization
Adrian Day of Adrian Day Asset Management argued the most significant factor is the global shift away from the U.S. dollar as the dominant reserve asset. “We may see a breakout soon,” he predicted.
Market Surveys Show Overwhelming Optimism
The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed 84% of Wall Street analysts expect higher prices next week, with none predicting a decline. Main Street investors were also bullish, though less extreme—63% anticipate gains, while 21% expect a pullback.
Data Ahead: Jobs and Inflation in Focus
Next week brings a series of U.S. economic releases that could influence gold:
- Pending Home Sales (Mon)
- JOLTS Job Openings & Consumer Confidence (Tue)
- ADP Employment & ISM Manufacturing (Wed)
- Jobless Claims (Thu)
- Nonfarm Payrolls & ISM Services (Fri)
Traders will watch closely to see whether the Fed is pushed toward further rate cuts in October.
Why Gold Keeps Rallying Even Against Headwinds
Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Global Forex noted gold hit a record near $3,971 on Tuesday despite stronger U.S. data and a firmer dollar. “Its resilience suggests the buying enthusiasm has not been exhausted,” he said.
Adam Button of Forexlive.com stressed that this week’s rally is remarkable because all the data favored the dollar—yet gold rose anyway. “The news flow ran entirely against gold this week, and yet it rallied,” he said. “That tells you the market doesn’t need dovish Fed cuts to keep moving higher.”
Looking Ahead: $4,000 in Sight?
Many analysts believe gold remains in “strong hands,” driven by central banks, long-term investors, and growing retail interest. Technical analysts like Michael Moor see further strength building on multiple timeframes, while FxPro’s Alex Kuptsikevich drew comparisons to the late 1970s gold boom.
With six straight weeks of gains and sentiment overwhelmingly bullish, the question is no longer whether gold can stay above $3,700—but whether it will test $4,000 sooner rather than later.
